October 24, 2025 | Real Estate News
What to Expect in 2026: Burlington, Oakville and Hamilton Real Estate
1. The Big Picture
Nationally, forecasts suggest that after the market has cooled in 2025, a gradual recovery is expected in 2026. For example, Royal Bank of Canada projects sales across Canada to rebound +7.9% in 2026, with modest price changes and variability by region : RBC+2Canada Housing Market+
The key drivers will be:
- Mortgage interest-rate changes and affordability
- Supply (Inventory levels of new listings vs. rate of sales)
- Demand (population growth, migration, local employment)
2. Local Market Implications
Burlington
- Burlington has shown strong long-term value growth. For instance, over the past 5 years, the region recorded about a 24% increase in home prices.
- While recent year-over-year numbers show some softening, 2026 may be a year where the market stabilizes or edges upward again, especially if borrowing costs drop and buyer confidence returns.
- Key focus: detached homes in sought-after neighbourhoods will likely outperform, while entry-level segments may face more competition.
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Oakville
- Oakville remains a premium market, showing dramatic gains over the last decade (≈ 90%+ increase) per recent data.
- In 2026, we expect Oakville to benefit from its reputation, location and scarcity of premium lots. Price growth may be more muted than during the boom years, but resilience is likely.
- Buyers will pay for location and quality; sellers who present well should be well-positioned.
Hamilton
- Hamilton (and the broader region) offers greater affordability and is increasingly attractive to families, first-time buyers, and investors.
- According to data, the average sale price in the region rose modestly (≈ 0.2%) in early 2025.
- For 2026, we expect Hamilton to lead in relative momentum, meaning it may show stronger percentage growth than some ultra-premium markets because it has more “catch-up” potential. But it will still be a moderate growth year, not a boom.
3. What Will Drive 2026?
- Interest Rates & Affordability: If borrowing costs ease (e.g., if the central bank cuts or holds rates steady while inflation falls), more buyers will re-enter the market. That could fuel activity in 2026.
- Inventory & New Builds: Forecasts suggest that housing supply in Ontario will remain elevated and that price growth will remain moderate. For example, forecasts show that Ontario’s prices may decline into 2025, then begin recovery in 2026-27.
- Demographics & Migration: Secondary markets like Burlington and Hamilton benefit from inward migration from more expensive, dense areas (e.g., Toronto). That trend may continue, boosting demand.
- Neighbourhood & Product Type Differences: Detached homes, large lots, desirable school zones and suburbs will continue to be favoured. Condos or small-unit apartments may lag or face more competition.
4. What We Predict for 2026
- In Burlington, expect price growth of 2-4% (assuming rates moderate and supply doesn’t surge). Strong neighbourhoods may see more; weaker segments may be flat.
- In Oakville, growth may be more modest: perhaps 1-3%, prioritizing location, upgraded homes, and quality. Entry segments may be flat or show only marginal increases.
- In Hamilton, we see potential for 3-5% growth, with first-time buyers and upgrades driving activity. But affordability remains a constraint.
- Sales volumes (number of transactions) are likely to pick up compared to 2025, as confidence builds—but they may still remain below peak years.
- Inventory will likely remain higher than the most heated boom period, meaning the market will continue to favour prepared, well-priced sellers and buyers who act with clarity.
- Pricing gaps: Quality, condition, presentation and location will matter more than ever. Homes in ready-to-move-in condition in top areas will outperform.
5. What This Means for You
- Sellers: If you’re thinking about listing in 2026, now is the time to get ready: improve condition, update where needed, and price with precision. If your home is in a prime location, you’ll be in a strong position.
- Buyers: For 2026, this could be a very good time to act – especially if rates drop and you’ve secured financing. Focus on value, neighbourhood, commute/travel, and look for homes that will hold their value over time.
- Investors/Holders: For those who own now, staying put may be a smart strategy unless you need to move. For those considering purchase, focus on segments with strong demand (e.g., family homes in high-quality areas).
Final Thoughts
While we are likely moving past the dramatic peaks of the housing boom, 2026 offers a solid, stable, and opportunity-rich market across Burlington, Oakville and Hamilton. The biggest winners will be those who align with the market dynamics – prepared sellers in desirable locations, and buyers who are ready and informed.
As your local real estate brokerage, we’re monitoring interest rates, supply trends and neighbourhood specifics closely so you can move at the right time and with the right strategy. If you’d like a deeper dive into your specific street, neighbourhood or product type (detached/semi/condo), let’s connect – I’m happy to prepare neighbourhood-level forecasts for you.
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Urban Group Realty
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